According to a research report by JPMorgan, retail demand for Bitcoin is expected to remain strong in the lead-up to the next halving event, scheduled for April 2024. The report attributes the recent increase in retail demand partially to the introduction of Bitcoin Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens. The upcoming halving, which will cut mining rewards by 50%, is predicted to double the production cost of Bitcoin to approximately $40,000, creating a positive psychological effect. JPMorgan analysts noted that historically, the production cost has served as a lower boundary for the cryptocurrency's price, and previous halving events in 2016 and 2020 were followed by a bullish trajectory in Bitcoin prices.
While institutional demand for Bitcoin has declined due to concerns over fraud, heightened volatility, and regulatory uncertainties, retail investors continue to view Bitcoin as an attractive investment option. JPMorgan previously highlighted the rally of both gold and Bitcoin following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with institutional investors favoring gold as a hedge against catastrophic scenarios, while retail investors turned to Bitcoin. The upcoming halving event and its impact on production cost are expected to bolster retail investor interest in Bitcoin leading up to April 2024.